November 17th Edition

Good Morning All,

After a collectively corrective end to October and a further bout of profit-taking in the early part of the new month, markets have staged a strong and broad-based rally. Much of the information source material we choose to rely on for our own comfort has pointed to these few days as being high energy ones. This observation, when translated to present market levels, indicates that this 1100 area on the S&P 500 represents a catalytic point in regard to future performance. In short, we are about to see either a corrective drop from what might be a double top; or a regenerative surge toward my long-held S&P 500 target of 1200, and quite possibly beyond. Naturally, it is the latter case that has our predictive backing.

There has been much discussion in the market place on the subject of enhanced computer trading as it appears in the form of dark pools and flash trading. The subject matter is far too complicated to discuss here, but for those interested in an in-depth analysis, Google awaits. For purposes of this letter it may be sufficient to know that somebody, or manybodies, are getting screwed by these unregulated practices, and that a fewbodies are making out like the bandits they are. This phenomenon has also affected reported NYSE volume, which to my knowledge, does not reflect these abundant trades, thereby making some technical analysis redundant. If anyone can enlighten me on how these cumulative volumes are reported, I would be most interested in hearing from you.

Look for a soft opening today followed by a resumption of the uptrend.

Commentary

The Sunday NYT had a story titled "Naming the '00's", as in the Gay Nineties, Roaring Twenties et al. My suggestion was to simply call them the Idiot Years, a phrase that may be grammatically, or even grammatically incorrect...but that's part of the point, is it not.

And finally, in regard to the recent retirement party, due to the venue and the various comings and goings, we never got around to the speech-making. For those interested, I offer the following observations.

Many of you are aware that the author Mordecai Richler spent a good deal of time at Winnie's on Crescent Street where he was known by some as the resident curmudgeon. During the eight years since his passing I have tried to assume (there has been some competition), not his literary mantle, but the more easily attainable one of resident curmudgeon. May I also add that the recent filming of Mordecai's last novel "Barney's Version" has inspired me to consider a scandalous take on the brokerage industry...hmmmm, how about Billy's Version.

Bill CoppMontreal ,
CanadaNovember 17, 2009
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