Good Morning All,
Markets resumed their two steps forward, one step back routine last week as they once again assailed the previously attained heights of 1100 on the S&P 500, only to give back this hallowed ground through the late weakness inspired by options expiry on Friday last.
Once again the issue for the bears has been the low volume of the advances, while the bulls, among whom I must number myself, remain confused about the effect of the "flash trading" and "dark pool" trades.
What we do know for certain is that a vast horde of late money remains uninvested at this juncture. With this in mind, we have put forth the belief on more than one occasion that a large volume "blow off" rally still awaits us; a rally that may have a temporary pause around December 10th, followed by a renewal after Christmas that moves our favourite average toward 1300 in early March.
Commodities have maintained their royal status during the recent run-up, with gold racing to new nominal highs. Some weeks ago, this letter suggested that the new gold bubble could stretch prices beyond 3000 dollars per ounce. This trade idea is gaining both momentum and credibility at once. The bandwagon has yet to fill up, and even when it does, further hook ups will become available. Rightly or wrongly, this is how markets work. If you don't believe me, read a Nasdaq chart from 1999 to March 2000; or more recently check the ascent/descent of housing prices.
Commentary
Only in America, you say!
Well so it would seem, as Sarah Barracuda's musings heads to the top of the best sellers lists, liberals everywhere wonder whether anyone buying the book can actually read. Oh, strike this nasty statement, it is just the jealous reaction of the yet-to-be-published.
But seriously folks (I like to get folksy at times), how is it that the very people who are most responsible for the present economic crisis can get away with organizing, funding and leading the "Tea Party" movement, a series of gatherings that are mostly attended by their victims, who lustily cheer them on when they ascribe blame for the state of America, to the people who are trying to fix the problems. Worse still, how do a bunch of insurance company lobbyists convince the people they are in the business of screwing, that a much cheaper and universally available government option is bad for them.
Truly a case of dumb and dumber.
"The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity."
W.B. Yeats from "The Second Coming"
Bill Copp
Montreal , Canada
November 24, 2009
laurelcommentblog
5147958450
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
November 17th Edition
Good Morning All,
After a collectively corrective end to October and a further bout of profit-taking in the early part of the new month, markets have staged a strong and broad-based rally. Much of the information source material we choose to rely on for our own comfort has pointed to these few days as being high energy ones. This observation, when translated to present market levels, indicates that this 1100 area on the S&P 500 represents a catalytic point in regard to future performance. In short, we are about to see either a corrective drop from what might be a double top; or a regenerative surge toward my long-held S&P 500 target of 1200, and quite possibly beyond. Naturally, it is the latter case that has our predictive backing.
There has been much discussion in the market place on the subject of enhanced computer trading as it appears in the form of dark pools and flash trading. The subject matter is far too complicated to discuss here, but for those interested in an in-depth analysis, Google awaits. For purposes of this letter it may be sufficient to know that somebody, or manybodies, are getting screwed by these unregulated practices, and that a fewbodies are making out like the bandits they are. This phenomenon has also affected reported NYSE volume, which to my knowledge, does not reflect these abundant trades, thereby making some technical analysis redundant. If anyone can enlighten me on how these cumulative volumes are reported, I would be most interested in hearing from you.
Look for a soft opening today followed by a resumption of the uptrend.
Commentary
The Sunday NYT had a story titled "Naming the '00's", as in the Gay Nineties, Roaring Twenties et al. My suggestion was to simply call them the Idiot Years, a phrase that may be grammatically, or even grammatically incorrect...but that's part of the point, is it not.
And finally, in regard to the recent retirement party, due to the venue and the various comings and goings, we never got around to the speech-making. For those interested, I offer the following observations.
Many of you are aware that the author Mordecai Richler spent a good deal of time at Winnie's on Crescent Street where he was known by some as the resident curmudgeon. During the eight years since his passing I have tried to assume (there has been some competition), not his literary mantle, but the more easily attainable one of resident curmudgeon. May I also add that the recent filming of Mordecai's last novel "Barney's Version" has inspired me to consider a scandalous take on the brokerage industry...hmmmm, how about Billy's Version.
Bill CoppMontreal ,
CanadaNovember 17, 2009
laurelcommentblogspot
514 795 8450
After a collectively corrective end to October and a further bout of profit-taking in the early part of the new month, markets have staged a strong and broad-based rally. Much of the information source material we choose to rely on for our own comfort has pointed to these few days as being high energy ones. This observation, when translated to present market levels, indicates that this 1100 area on the S&P 500 represents a catalytic point in regard to future performance. In short, we are about to see either a corrective drop from what might be a double top; or a regenerative surge toward my long-held S&P 500 target of 1200, and quite possibly beyond. Naturally, it is the latter case that has our predictive backing.
There has been much discussion in the market place on the subject of enhanced computer trading as it appears in the form of dark pools and flash trading. The subject matter is far too complicated to discuss here, but for those interested in an in-depth analysis, Google awaits. For purposes of this letter it may be sufficient to know that somebody, or manybodies, are getting screwed by these unregulated practices, and that a fewbodies are making out like the bandits they are. This phenomenon has also affected reported NYSE volume, which to my knowledge, does not reflect these abundant trades, thereby making some technical analysis redundant. If anyone can enlighten me on how these cumulative volumes are reported, I would be most interested in hearing from you.
Look for a soft opening today followed by a resumption of the uptrend.
Commentary
The Sunday NYT had a story titled "Naming the '00's", as in the Gay Nineties, Roaring Twenties et al. My suggestion was to simply call them the Idiot Years, a phrase that may be grammatically, or even grammatically incorrect...but that's part of the point, is it not.
And finally, in regard to the recent retirement party, due to the venue and the various comings and goings, we never got around to the speech-making. For those interested, I offer the following observations.
Many of you are aware that the author Mordecai Richler spent a good deal of time at Winnie's on Crescent Street where he was known by some as the resident curmudgeon. During the eight years since his passing I have tried to assume (there has been some competition), not his literary mantle, but the more easily attainable one of resident curmudgeon. May I also add that the recent filming of Mordecai's last novel "Barney's Version" has inspired me to consider a scandalous take on the brokerage industry...hmmmm, how about Billy's Version.
Bill CoppMontreal ,
CanadaNovember 17, 2009
laurelcommentblogspot
514 795 8450
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
November 10th Edition
Good Morning All,
Last week at this time, we hinted at the possibility of a Tuesday turnaround in markets, but in a copp out which was quite out of character, we came up short of actually committing to it. Instead we offered the quiet reassurance that the upward trend remained intact and would renew itself no later than mid month. Well my dears, the week that was, proved to be a rather good one for the bulls, bringing markets back to, and in some cases, beyond their former recovery highs making today yet an important flex point for markets.
Ideally, bulls should hope for some early morning profit taking to be absorbed in advance of a moderate confirmation of the week's considerable achievements. Sector performances will also be an important marking point as new highs in gold, copper and other commodities are likely to come under some profit taking pressure sooner rather than later. It is thought by most observers that U.S. dollar weakness is the commodity price generator, so keep an eye on our own resource based currency for clues. Either way, this China trade is likely to be on for some time to come. The simplest way to play this is not through Asian stocks but through our own resource based companies. Mining and oil stocks are ripe for takeover by cash rich internationals and sovereign entities. Even the forest product ne'er do wells are drawing interest. Check out Domtar's trading range par example, while you continue to collect Norbord in Canada and Louisiana Pacific in the U.S.; respectively 13ish and under 7.
A few weeks ago we wrote of gold as being the next bubble, due to the ease with which it can be manipulated. As long time readers of this letter are aware, I am a cynical bull on this subject, having recommended its purchase around the 350$ level some 5 or 6 years ago. My then original target of 1000$ has since been exceeded and I expect my second level of 1500$ soon will be. As most investors are aware these are nominal dollar prices when related to all time highs reached in the early 80's, which are closer to 2300$ when adjusted for inflation. I was not kidding when I recently targeted prices well in excess of 3000$... if the bubble theory proves out. Just remember however, that you cannot eat gold, live in it or make love to it...at least not in a normal way.
Commentary
It is not their recent Gubnatorial victories that should delight the Republican Party, but the loss of their 100 year old Congressional seat in upstate New York. The crazies that occupy the right wing of the GOP who are bent on taking over the entire shooting match, just had a refresher course on how moronic they can be. Moderate Republicans and adult Americans everywhere can rejoice in this defeat of the lunatic fringe led by Palin, Limbaugh and the denizens at Fox network.
On the other hand, Democrats may have cynically wished for such a takeover, as they are all too well aware that only 20 % of the public is actually certifiable and by definition...unelectable.
…or as Bobby Kennedy used to say "20% of the people will be against everything, all of the time"
Bill Copp
Montreal, Canada
November 10, 2009
laurelcommentblog
Last week at this time, we hinted at the possibility of a Tuesday turnaround in markets, but in a copp out which was quite out of character, we came up short of actually committing to it. Instead we offered the quiet reassurance that the upward trend remained intact and would renew itself no later than mid month. Well my dears, the week that was, proved to be a rather good one for the bulls, bringing markets back to, and in some cases, beyond their former recovery highs making today yet an important flex point for markets.
Ideally, bulls should hope for some early morning profit taking to be absorbed in advance of a moderate confirmation of the week's considerable achievements. Sector performances will also be an important marking point as new highs in gold, copper and other commodities are likely to come under some profit taking pressure sooner rather than later. It is thought by most observers that U.S. dollar weakness is the commodity price generator, so keep an eye on our own resource based currency for clues. Either way, this China trade is likely to be on for some time to come. The simplest way to play this is not through Asian stocks but through our own resource based companies. Mining and oil stocks are ripe for takeover by cash rich internationals and sovereign entities. Even the forest product ne'er do wells are drawing interest. Check out Domtar's trading range par example, while you continue to collect Norbord in Canada and Louisiana Pacific in the U.S.; respectively 13ish and under 7.
A few weeks ago we wrote of gold as being the next bubble, due to the ease with which it can be manipulated. As long time readers of this letter are aware, I am a cynical bull on this subject, having recommended its purchase around the 350$ level some 5 or 6 years ago. My then original target of 1000$ has since been exceeded and I expect my second level of 1500$ soon will be. As most investors are aware these are nominal dollar prices when related to all time highs reached in the early 80's, which are closer to 2300$ when adjusted for inflation. I was not kidding when I recently targeted prices well in excess of 3000$... if the bubble theory proves out. Just remember however, that you cannot eat gold, live in it or make love to it...at least not in a normal way.
Commentary
It is not their recent Gubnatorial victories that should delight the Republican Party, but the loss of their 100 year old Congressional seat in upstate New York. The crazies that occupy the right wing of the GOP who are bent on taking over the entire shooting match, just had a refresher course on how moronic they can be. Moderate Republicans and adult Americans everywhere can rejoice in this defeat of the lunatic fringe led by Palin, Limbaugh and the denizens at Fox network.
On the other hand, Democrats may have cynically wished for such a takeover, as they are all too well aware that only 20 % of the public is actually certifiable and by definition...unelectable.
…or as Bobby Kennedy used to say "20% of the people will be against everything, all of the time"
Bill Copp
Montreal, Canada
November 10, 2009
laurelcommentblog
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
November 3rd Edition
Good Morning All,
There is little doubt that our predicted rocket launch toward 1200 on the S&P 500 has been somewhat delayed by the market's abandonment of the high ground that was taken some 10 trading sessions ago. Although the extreme volatility that has typified recent activity has made many investors quite nervous about future trends, it is our belief that the November correction we called for a few weeks ago...has simply come early. One of the major reasons for this late October swoon, and its carry-over into this week, may be attributed to the annual event that has influenced price action for many years. October is year-end for many fund managers, and it is their portfolio adjustments that have led to the triple digit up-and-down moves which have made markets so raucus of late.
We are not so sure that we want to call for a turnaround Tuesday this morning, but we will venture to state that the up trend remains intact, and that the flight toward 1200 S&P and beyond will resume by mid month at the latest. If David Nichols of Fractal Markets is correct, we should see this bullish resumption last through early March, whereupon a seasonal pullback may present itself... from much higher numbers. In short, this week's market has created yet another opportunity for those who have missed the enormous March/October gains, to get on board for the next four months, or five years if they are patient.
Commentary
Some of you may have seen the documentary "Life After People" which premiered on the History channel in January 2008 and has recently replayed. The film explores the idea of what would happen to the Earth, its environment and its structures,for months, years and centuries after people are gone. Interesting as the theme may be, I was struck by the parallel that might be drawn to the present situation in the Middle East . What would happen if all the foreign occupiers were withdrawn? Or worse still, what will happen if they are not?
In essence, people and politics do make a difference; but in the vast realm of time, it is both brief and fleeting by nature, and often, very destructive.
"And everybody praised the Duke,
Who this great fight did win.
But what good came of it at last?
Quoth little Peterkin.
'Why that I cannot tell,' said he,'
But 'twas a famous victory.'
Robert Southey
Bill Copp
Montreal , Canada
November 3 2009
laurelcommentblog
There is little doubt that our predicted rocket launch toward 1200 on the S&P 500 has been somewhat delayed by the market's abandonment of the high ground that was taken some 10 trading sessions ago. Although the extreme volatility that has typified recent activity has made many investors quite nervous about future trends, it is our belief that the November correction we called for a few weeks ago...has simply come early. One of the major reasons for this late October swoon, and its carry-over into this week, may be attributed to the annual event that has influenced price action for many years. October is year-end for many fund managers, and it is their portfolio adjustments that have led to the triple digit up-and-down moves which have made markets so raucus of late.
We are not so sure that we want to call for a turnaround Tuesday this morning, but we will venture to state that the up trend remains intact, and that the flight toward 1200 S&P and beyond will resume by mid month at the latest. If David Nichols of Fractal Markets is correct, we should see this bullish resumption last through early March, whereupon a seasonal pullback may present itself... from much higher numbers. In short, this week's market has created yet another opportunity for those who have missed the enormous March/October gains, to get on board for the next four months, or five years if they are patient.
Commentary
Some of you may have seen the documentary "Life After People" which premiered on the History channel in January 2008 and has recently replayed. The film explores the idea of what would happen to the Earth, its environment and its structures,for months, years and centuries after people are gone. Interesting as the theme may be, I was struck by the parallel that might be drawn to the present situation in the Middle East . What would happen if all the foreign occupiers were withdrawn? Or worse still, what will happen if they are not?
In essence, people and politics do make a difference; but in the vast realm of time, it is both brief and fleeting by nature, and often, very destructive.
"And everybody praised the Duke,
Who this great fight did win.
But what good came of it at last?
Quoth little Peterkin.
'Why that I cannot tell,' said he,'
But 'twas a famous victory.'
Robert Southey
Bill Copp
Montreal , Canada
November 3 2009
laurelcommentblog
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