Friday, December 11, 2009
IMPORTANT MESSAGE
The Laurel Comment has moved. Letters may now be found at: http://thecoppcomment.blogspot.com/
Thursday, December 3, 2009
December 3rd Edition
Good Morning All,
Last week's Dubai Incident has since proven to be yet another blip on the markets' bullish trendline. Despite warnings of it being the kickoff to a series imminent sovereign debt failures in emerging markets, the smart money took advantage of the "never one cockroach" theorists penchant for historical matchups as it once again trapped the short sellers.
In market parlance, there have long been allusions to bull traps and bear traps; yet what I find interesting these days, is my recently developed theory that what we are now dealing with are ideologue traps, whereby the practicing libertarians and other assorted Wall Street Republicans who desperately pine for a failure of all things Obama, keep getting their respective heads handed to them. For those who doubt the validity of the foregoing, just spend a few days watching CNBC, while paying particular attention to the ubiquitous Dennis Gartman whose role as an expert interviewee belies the performance of his hedge fund launched at the bottom of the market last March. During one of the greatest advances in market history, he has actually posted negative returns; and as for the once reliable Art Cashin, this newly minted permabear (circa 2008) keeps referring to some geopolitical event that will destroy the indexes and the economy. One might be striven to believe that he has tossed out his charts and bought into Nostradamus' musings.
Today we will begin with up markets that will be paying close attention to the Bernanke hearings, while being encouraged by the job summit and the increasingly bullish trendline. The march to 1200 S&P 500 continues.
Commentary
As many long time readers of this letter are aware, the writer holds an unabashed liberal bias on most issues, a view that is somewhat tempered by his hearty pragmatic belief that the doable is more important than the wishful. He is also an admirerer of intellectual curiosity, provided that it is not stifled by too much rigor. He also maintains a healthy distaste for all things ideological; but enough of this third person crap.
Today's treatise includes only a brief mention of Tiger Woods' philanderings, after all "let he who.....cast the first stone" or someting like that. No, today I wish to discuss our other person of colour icon, Barack Obama. What I do believe is important, is the success of the Obama Presidency and its most important initiatives; and how it continues to move both America and the world forward toward a better and more rational understanding of themselves and their increasingly interactive future roles.
It would appear to most sane observors, that the only good thing to come out of the Bush Administration was the situation that created the Obama possibility. The world cannot waste this opportunity. This is not to suggest that criticism Obama be taken from the table, but more simply stated that some political slack needs to be cut if we as a world are to move to a better place. The doable outweighs the dreamable and the time line on an Afghan withdrawal remains an escape route.
" He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind "
Proverbs
Bill Copp
Montreal,Canada
December 3 2009
laurelcommentblog
514 795 8450
Last week's Dubai Incident has since proven to be yet another blip on the markets' bullish trendline. Despite warnings of it being the kickoff to a series imminent sovereign debt failures in emerging markets, the smart money took advantage of the "never one cockroach" theorists penchant for historical matchups as it once again trapped the short sellers.
In market parlance, there have long been allusions to bull traps and bear traps; yet what I find interesting these days, is my recently developed theory that what we are now dealing with are ideologue traps, whereby the practicing libertarians and other assorted Wall Street Republicans who desperately pine for a failure of all things Obama, keep getting their respective heads handed to them. For those who doubt the validity of the foregoing, just spend a few days watching CNBC, while paying particular attention to the ubiquitous Dennis Gartman whose role as an expert interviewee belies the performance of his hedge fund launched at the bottom of the market last March. During one of the greatest advances in market history, he has actually posted negative returns; and as for the once reliable Art Cashin, this newly minted permabear (circa 2008) keeps referring to some geopolitical event that will destroy the indexes and the economy. One might be striven to believe that he has tossed out his charts and bought into Nostradamus' musings.
Today we will begin with up markets that will be paying close attention to the Bernanke hearings, while being encouraged by the job summit and the increasingly bullish trendline. The march to 1200 S&P 500 continues.
Commentary
As many long time readers of this letter are aware, the writer holds an unabashed liberal bias on most issues, a view that is somewhat tempered by his hearty pragmatic belief that the doable is more important than the wishful. He is also an admirerer of intellectual curiosity, provided that it is not stifled by too much rigor. He also maintains a healthy distaste for all things ideological; but enough of this third person crap.
Today's treatise includes only a brief mention of Tiger Woods' philanderings, after all "let he who.....cast the first stone" or someting like that. No, today I wish to discuss our other person of colour icon, Barack Obama. What I do believe is important, is the success of the Obama Presidency and its most important initiatives; and how it continues to move both America and the world forward toward a better and more rational understanding of themselves and their increasingly interactive future roles.
It would appear to most sane observors, that the only good thing to come out of the Bush Administration was the situation that created the Obama possibility. The world cannot waste this opportunity. This is not to suggest that criticism Obama be taken from the table, but more simply stated that some political slack needs to be cut if we as a world are to move to a better place. The doable outweighs the dreamable and the time line on an Afghan withdrawal remains an escape route.
" He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind "
Proverbs
Bill Copp
Montreal,Canada
December 3 2009
laurelcommentblog
514 795 8450
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