November

The Laurel Comment

“Time will run back and fetch the age of gold”.
-John Milton

Commentary

The world had great reason to celebrate on October 28th with the passing of the 45th anniversary of the Cuban Missile crisis. Although this date did not fall on a special number in 2007 its observance held particular importance in light of the recent drum banging by the Bush regime.

Our ability to look back four decades is predicated upon the actions taken, or lack thereof, at that crucial time in history. Similar to all things historic, we are now aware of greater detail than those who lived the experience. This is not hindsight; it is knowledge dispersed over time and now freely available to all through the magic of the Internet. For an interesting take go to the National Public Radio (NPR) site and listen to JFK’s premier speechwriter, Ted Sorenson, review the event.

The lessons of history are numerous and incredibly dangerous when ignored. One such instruction that appears increasingly relevant to our present circumstance is the understanding that permanence as it relates to both allies and enemies is a fleeting thing and an undisciplined measure, both of what has been and of what is likely to come about.

The Bush Administration’s recent campaign against Iran appears to ignore even the most basic lessons of diplomatic process as its penchant for grandstanding and unbridled hubris have now reached pre-Iraq invasion status. Worse still, their rhetoric belies the true effect of such bombast given the recognition by the rest of the world of its now diminished military and economic power. This perception, as it pertains to the Middle East, may prove to be highly dangerous because the true might of America now resides in only one area… its nuclear arsenal and its capacity to deliver weapons of mass destruction. What insanity we might wonder would provoke anyone to consider such a course of action, particularly given the minor nature of the threat? Welcome again to Bush world.

So in the name of perspective let us review once again the friends and foes list of the last century. Our enemies in World War II were Japan, Germany and Italy…okay? Our allies included the ex Soviet Union and China. Fast-forward to the Mao Tse Tung successes of 1949 and the outset of the “Cold War” and we then find that these are allies no more.

Bring on Vietnam, as boy George might opine, and America is soon faced with its greatest policy disaster. Concurrently let’s include the excursions into Latin America and the Middle East where Iran was then America’s best buddy, or at least the Shah was. How things change, by the 1980’s. Reagan at his Machiavellian best was arming both Iran and Iraq during their nine year war of attrition while another crazy in Libya topped their evil persons list.
Then along came Gorbachev and the fall of the wall, reform in China in the post Tiananmen Square era and a whole new look in the Muddled East.

Oh wait! I forgot to mention Osama, Al-Qaeda and America’s support of these gentlemen and the Mujadeen\Taliban during the Afghan-Soviet war. Silly of me, but it is as if this game of musical chairs, normally played by children now resounds to the harshness of rap as opposed to the gentler melodies of my youth; just as the war hawks’ mentality that had remained tethered during that other more serious confrontation of the 1960’s has now been freed to both proselytize upon and perpetuate the myth of nuclear weaponry as a military option.

This is indeed a troublesome time fraught with dangerous people but it is not the little Iranian who is the major problem.

Former enemies Japan, Germany and Italy are now America’s allies. Vietnam, Russia and the late Eastern Bloc have each become trading partners meanwhile China has over a trillion dollars in US currency, an amount that is growing faster than the US treasury can print the paper. Yes and even Muamar Qaddafi, remember him, well Al Qaeda’s number two man now calls him an enemy because he is too close to the United States.

Go figure, is the world going to watch George Bush and his neo con masters risk World War III against Iran, which left alone or properly courted might well prove to be America’s next best friend in that troubled and troubling part of the globe?

Markets

Every bull market ends in a credit\currency crisis and this one is a doozie. The problems this time around are not with the peso, the baht or even the ruble, well not just yet anyway because it is the US dollar that is in deep and dire straits and as Canadians we have carnal knowledge of the event as we have seen our newly minted petro\gold currency reach and surpass historic highs, while the new century’s Euro performs similar aerobatics.

Gold has now traded beyond $800 per ounce but is still priced at one-third of its inflation adjusted 1980 high. The prospects for this imperfect hedge are now almost limitless as paper rich holders around the world seek value for their fast diminishing greenbacks.

We will be hearing a good deal more about “sovereign wealth” over the coming years while excess liquidity in Petro dollars, Asian banks and Hedge funds may presently amount to as much as 20 trillion dollars, an amount that has driven markets higher this past year. But that was then and this now we have been warning of for many months includes the recognition that this mass of liquidity is made of paper and backed by less and less real value. The binge may not yet be over but as Robert Redford famously said…it’s close, it’s damn close.

Remarkably

As the fires raged in Southern California this past month it was interesting to watch the out pouring of sympathy for the many who had to leave their homes for their other homes. It brought to mind the greater tragedies of New Orleans and Iraq where 4 million of the displaced had neither a place to go nor an insurance policy to cover their losses.

And to finish with one more read on markets, someone recently pointed out that if you removed Google, Rim (Blackberry) and Apple from the NASDAQ, the index would be close to even on the year. So I guess that as in all things it’s not what you own but whom you own that counts most.

Buy gold, it has only begun to rise.

Addition

When Charles de Gaulle exited NATO in 1966 he demanded the removal of all U.S. troops to which Lyndon Johnson responded “Does that include the ones buried there?”

From de Gaulle to “freedom fries” to the Sarkozy-Bush wedding…plus ca change…

Geoff Ryan
Nov 6, 2007

GeoffreyRyan@hotmail.com
514-795-8450
http://thelaurelcomment.blogspot.com/

November

The Laurel Comment

“Time will run back and fetch the age of gold”.
-John Milton

Commentary

The world had great reason to celebrate on October 28th with the passing of the 45th anniversary of the Cuban Missile crisis. Although this date did not fall on a special number in 2007 its observance held particular importance in light of the recent drum banging by the Bush regime.

Our ability to look back four decades is predicated upon the actions taken, or lack thereof, at that crucial time in history. Similar to all things historic, we are now aware of greater detail than those who lived the experience. This is not hindsight; it is knowledge dispersed over time and now freely available to all through the magic of the Internet. For an interesting take go to the National Public Radio (NPR) site and listen to JFK’s premier speechwriter, Ted Sorenson, review the event.

The lessons of history are numerous and incredibly dangerous when ignored. One such instruction that appears increasingly relevant to our present circumstance is the understanding that permanence as it relates to both allies and enemies is a fleeting thing and an undisciplined measure, both of what has been and of what is likely to come about.

The Bush Administration’s recent campaign against Iran appears to ignore even the most basic lessons of diplomatic process as its penchant for grandstanding and unbridled hubris have now reached pre-Iraq invasion status. Worse still, their rhetoric belies the true effect of such bombast given the recognition by the rest of the world of its now diminished military and economic power. This perception, as it pertains to the Middle East, may prove to be highly dangerous because the true might of America now resides in only one area… its nuclear arsenal and its capacity to deliver weapons of mass destruction. What insanity we might wonder would provoke anyone to consider such a course of action, particularly given the minor nature of the threat? Welcome again to Bush world.

So in the name of perspective let us review once again the friends and foes list of the last century. Our enemies in World War II were Japan, Germany and Italy…okay? Our allies included the ex Soviet Union and China. Fast-forward to the Mao Tse Tung successes of 1949 and the outset of the “Cold War” and we then find that these are allies no more.

Bring on Vietnam, as boy George might opine, and America is soon faced with its greatest policy disaster. Concurrently let’s include the excursions into Latin America and the Middle East where Iran was then America’s best buddy, or at least the Shah was. How things change, by the 1980’s. Reagan at his Machiavellian best was arming both Iran and Iraq during their nine year war of attrition while another crazy in Libya topped their evil persons list.
Then along came Gorbachev and the fall of the wall, reform in China in the post Tiananmen Square era and a whole new look in the Muddled East.

Oh wait! I forgot to mention Osama, Al-Qaeda and America’s support of these gentlemen and the Mujadeen\Taliban during the Afghan-Soviet war. Silly of me, but it is as if this game of musical chairs, normally played by children now resounds to the harshness of rap as opposed to the gentler melodies of my youth; just as the war hawks’ mentality that had remained tethered during that other more serious confrontation of the 1960’s has now been freed to both proselytize upon and perpetuate the myth of nuclear weaponry as a military option.

This is indeed a troublesome time fraught with dangerous people but it is not the little Iranian who is the major problem.

Former enemies Japan, Germany and Italy are now America’s allies. Vietnam, Russia and the late Eastern Bloc have each become trading partners meanwhile China has over a trillion dollars in US currency, an amount that is growing faster than the US treasury can print the paper. Yes and even Muamar Qaddafi, remember him, well Al Qaeda’s number two man now calls him an enemy because he is too close to the United States.

Go figure, is the world going to watch George Bush and his neo con masters risk World War III against Iran, which left alone or properly courted might well prove to be America’s next best friend in that troubled and troubling part of the globe?

Markets

Every bull market ends in a credit\currency crisis and this one is a doozie. The problems this time around are not with the peso, the baht or even the ruble, well not just yet anyway because it is the US dollar that is in deep and dire straits and as Canadians we have carnal knowledge of the event as we have seen our newly minted petro\gold currency reach and surpass historic highs, while the new century’s Euro performs similar aerobatics.

Gold has now traded beyond $800 per ounce but is still priced at one-third of its inflation adjusted 1980 high. The prospects for this imperfect hedge are now almost limitless as paper rich holders around the world seek value for their fast diminishing greenbacks.

We will be hearing a good deal more about “sovereign wealth” over the coming years while excess liquidity in Petro dollars, Asian banks and Hedge funds may presently amount to as much as 20 trillion dollars, an amount that has driven markets higher this past year. But that was then and this now we have been warning of for many months includes the recognition that this mass of liquidity is made of paper and backed by less and less real value. The binge may not yet be over but as Robert Redford famously said…it’s close, it’s damn close.

Remarkably

As the fires raged in Southern California this past month it was interesting to watch the out pouring of sympathy for the many who had to leave their homes for their other homes. It brought to mind the greater tragedies of New Orleans and Iraq where 4 million of the displaced had neither a place to go nor an insurance policy to cover their losses.

And to finish with one more read on markets, someone recently pointed out that if you removed Google, Rim (Blackberry) and Apple from the NASDAQ, the index would be close to even on the year. So I guess that as in all things it’s not what you own but whom you own that counts most.

Buy gold, it has only begun to rise.

Addition

When Charles de Gaulle exited NATO in 1966 he demanded the removal of all U.S. troops to which Lyndon Johnson responded “Does that include the ones buried there?”

From de Gaulle to “freedom fries” to the Sarkozy-Bush wedding…plus ca change…

Geoff Ryan
October 1, 2007
GeoffreyRyan@hotmail.com
514-795-8450
http://thelaurelcomment.blogspot.com/