February 5, 2007

The Laurel Comment
“The United States of America is still run by its citizens. The government works for us. Rank imperialism and war mongering are not American traditions or values. We do not need to dominate the world. We want and need to work with other nations. We want to find solutions other than killing people. Not in our name, not with our money, not with our children’s blood.”
-The late great Molly Ivins

Commentary

Once upon a time, at the very beginning of the neo con inspired Iraqi expedition, many true believers dreamed of a day when American military might would uproot the present leading dictators of the Middle East and supplant them with democratically chosen favourites of their own making. Alas the fantasy that drove them to such wild expectation has long since been replaced by the trauma of reality.

George W. Bush, the perpetrator in chief of America’s disastrous foreign policy now states that one final surge is required to stabilize the fledgling democracy in Iraq and that the new commander, General Petraeous, is the best man for the job.

If this be the case, the question begs as to why this brilliant officer was not discovered and put in place earlier. Spin, spin, spin, the entire Iraq debacle has degenerated into a face saving exercise for the Bushies, one which is costing America dearly in lives, national treasure and moral authority. I am once again reminded of John Kerry’s finest moment when as a young Vietnam Veteran he asked a 1974 Senate committee hearing “how do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake”. America will be leaving Iraq one day soon, whether it is tomorrow or two years from now everyone will be worse off and many more on both sides and in the middle will be either dead or severely maimed.

My predecessor in this space, Bill Copp, long ago suggested that a dividing Iraq into three sectors was the only solution left to the creators of this havoc. Many, including Senator Joe Biden and conservative columnist David Brooks have since joined with this opinion. This solution may be compared to that used in many historic battles; separate the combatants. Failing this it would appear that this civil war, like all others before it, will end only when the stronger or more numerous side vanquishes its weaker foe.

To this former end America should not be threatening Iran, it should be enlisting its help as well as that of other nations of interest both within the region or geographically removed from it. Cooperation and diplomacy have yet to be tried, is there a reason?

Two final questions; how much more can be asked of National Guardsmen and other troops without there being more than a rumble of discontent? Captain Queeg Anyone?...and what was China doing with that recent missile launch, maybe they were asking who really was in charge?

Markets

Okay, okay, so markets have continued to rise in spite of an inverted yield curve and a pending recession giving many professional investment managers more than a slight headache while proving once more that excess liquidity is capable of driving stocks and commodities well past their normal points of reference to fair value.

The world is awash in money and its credit twin. This vast source of printable energy seems to know no bounds and unlike fossil fuels appears to be an infinite resource. I can only suggest that the greed will eventually be tapped and the fallback position will be precious metals. Although gold has already doubled during the past five years it is not even close to its all time inflation adjusted highs. Look for further gains in the 30% range for 2007.

Ethanol from corn is a joke. It makes no sense practically, environmentally or economically. Cellulitic ethanol may be quite something else. Before Bush and the corn/ethanol lobby rape the American public once more, bear these numbers in mind, or better still, do your own research. It takes eight gallons of gas to produce 10 gallons of corn ethanol a fuel that gets less mileage. Without huge subsidies it would die a natural death. Oil sands in Canada employ one quarter as much energy to provide the same amount of useable gasoline. With clean nuclear power plants, it would be even less. We are on the cusp of a huge proliferation of nuclear based power, a situation which may soon be embraced rather than feared by the “greens” as the disposal of nuclear waste may prove to be more easily controlled than was previously the case.

Trade with caution, own gold, biotechs and special situations in the energy area including oil and gas income trusts.

Remarkably

I was going to finish this column with a supportive comment about former President Jimmy Carter and his latest book “Palestine: Peace not Apartheid” until I discovered that such a favourable comment was akin to criticizing the Muslim Prophet Mohammed in other circles.

Bearing this in mind I decided instead to plumb the depths of the global warming argument which may or may not be safer turf even though these last few weeks in the Northeastern part of the continent have led many of us toward a more welcoming view of the prospect.

Many of you have by now either watched or read about the Al Gore film “An Inconvenient Truth”, a presentation that makes many of us wonder what the world would be like had this articulate and intelligent gentlemen overcome the Florida voting irregularities and kept George W. Bush and the neo cons from the Presidency.

And for what it’s worth on that score I would like to see John Edwards win the Democratic Party’s 2008 nomination.

As for George and the gang of many allow me to paraphrase their most fervent supporters:

“Impeach them all and let god sort them out”.



Geoff Ryan
Feb 5, 2007