Good Morning All,
The world has now entered the post Bush era, a time during which we shall see much in the way of change, both in America and around the world. The first of what I hope will be many Obama years began a little over a week ago, and already we have seen the implementation of many important actions of both a macro and micro nature, the most empowering of which have been the initial steps taken toward the return of constitutional practice and the "rule of law".
Despite yesterday's market decline, amidst an endless stream of terrible economic news, the major indexes staged their best recovery week since the first days of 2009; and no, folks, none of this activity had anything to do with the hodgepodge of proposals laid out in the Harper budget, the silliest of which was the home renovation idea. As I understand it, a new bureaucracy will be created to return some money to people who spend $10,000 on home-work. Well I, of course, don't personally know anyone who has paid their fix-it man or general contractor sous table, but I have heard stories of such tsk tsk goings on. If stimulation is what Harper or Iggy are looking for, why not just simply cut the GST/PST sales tax on building products for one year; and while they are at it, do the same thing for the automotive industry and home furnishings. Simple is often better.
The Obama stimulus package will be passed by the Senate in what I hope will be an enhanced form that does not include more useless tax cuts. These GOP guys had better begin to realize that they lost the election because their silly mantra of tax cuts for the already wealthy, trickle down, and deregulate were a major part of the problem and are thereby not the solution. Demanding dividend tax credits and capital gains exemptions at this "such a time" is patent nonsense. An extension of retroactive capital loss claims makes infinitely greater sense and would be April, impactive.
The stem cell stocks jumped again yesterday, and underneath the broader indexes, the mid and small cap companies have fared much better than the blue chips. We are entering a new era wherein science will be a dominant theme; one in which research and development will hold sway over ideological claptrap and religious cant. The Captain of this recently launched ship of state has said so and I believe his word. I also believe that his devotion to common sense solutions will bring much needed confidence to a world and a nation in dire need of intelligent, adult leadership.
This is not a time for fear but for bold action, investments included.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Friday, January 23, 2009
January 23, 2009 Edition
Good Morning All,
Congressional Republicans have continued their grandstanding this week through the delay of several cabinet appointments that will happen anyway. I do not oppose due diligence in any area, but it does appear to this observor that delaying, or, as it were, holding up the Eric Holder appointment to the office of Attorney General is a little over the top, particularly when one considers the tenure and practices of Alberto Gonzales. President Obama stated in his speech that it was time to put away childish things...it is long past time.
Geron Corporation, one of my stem cell recommendations of November last, is up strongly this morning on news that the FDA has approved the first human clinical trial of embryonic stem cell therapy. It is likely no coincidence that this has occurred in the post inauguration days. Others in the group are moving in sympathy and will each trade much higher over the coming weeks. Please consult my list for names and google the story.
Congressional Republicans have continued their grandstanding this week through the delay of several cabinet appointments that will happen anyway. I do not oppose due diligence in any area, but it does appear to this observor that delaying, or, as it were, holding up the Eric Holder appointment to the office of Attorney General is a little over the top, particularly when one considers the tenure and practices of Alberto Gonzales. President Obama stated in his speech that it was time to put away childish things...it is long past time.
Geron Corporation, one of my stem cell recommendations of November last, is up strongly this morning on news that the FDA has approved the first human clinical trial of embryonic stem cell therapy. It is likely no coincidence that this has occurred in the post inauguration days. Others in the group are moving in sympathy and will each trade much higher over the coming weeks. Please consult my list for names and google the story.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
January 22, 2009 Edition
Good Morning All,
Okay, all long term Obama fans and recent converts, you can breathe now, because George really is gone, and the tide of common sense that went out with his arrival eight seemingly interminable years ago has begun its return to America, bringing with it both a sense of hope and an opportunity for renewal. As the new President has warned on an increasingly frequent basis, the times ahead will not be easy; nor will the solutions to the past travesty of mistaken and misapplied policies be simple or perfect in either their design or their implementation. Yet what we do know for certain is that the United States and the world will be far better served by this adult leader and his pragmatic cabinet than ever we were by the collection of self-serving ideologues they have replaced.
Today should see the final important cabinet approvals that will include the woebegotten Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who received an important endorsement from Paul Volcker the excellent Fed Chairman who preceded the highly overrated Alan Greenspan. Whatever Timothy may have done (how could someone named Timothy be bad), his credentials on Wall Street are Triple A, for whatever that is worth these days. Assessing the value of such things, at least on a short term basis, was easy, even for the GOP, who have realized that this is no time to pick a fight with the the incoming missile of public popularity that has swelled for all things Obama. Markets began to reflect this wave of confidence yesterday as they combined with good news from IBM and some significant insider buying in the beleagured banks to post recovery gains, the continuation of which I would expect to see over the coming weeks as we approach the 1150 S&P 500 target this letter projected last November. Yes I know I said it would occur by mid to late January, but I also cautioned that "getting both the number and the day right" was an improbable task. We now need to close strongly above 860 for this thrust to achieve technical approval, a level that may be forthcoming today.
The world economy is not likely to show signs of recovery for some time to come as they await the return of open and liquid credit markets. It has been noted here that the LIBOR rate and the attendant TED SPREAD have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, and that these are important monitors of the velocity of money, a term that should enjoy increasing analysis in the popular press; google all of the above for your Economics 101 course... you know, the one that Bush failed. Markets, however, as this letter so often reiterates, are predictors of the future, and express the buying or selling, not of past Christmas ghosts but of future realities...so get out of your present malaise and look forward.
In Canada next week's budget should offer both fiscal stimulus and a possible retreatment of the income trust issue. Look to these latter gifts (maybe for your tax free accounts) and to my favourite Canadian infrastructure company Aecon around $10.50 up from $6 in November. Investment banking is coming off its worst year in recent history so look for a ton of new issue product and a spate of merger and acquisition activity. GMP.UN in the low 5's will be a slam dunk beneficiary of such largesse. And just one more point....Barack's Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel is set to become a household name in the coming years but it won't be in the same way that H.R. Halediman or John Erlichman's was. Oh, and I nearly forgot...own some gold shares.
Okay, all long term Obama fans and recent converts, you can breathe now, because George really is gone, and the tide of common sense that went out with his arrival eight seemingly interminable years ago has begun its return to America, bringing with it both a sense of hope and an opportunity for renewal. As the new President has warned on an increasingly frequent basis, the times ahead will not be easy; nor will the solutions to the past travesty of mistaken and misapplied policies be simple or perfect in either their design or their implementation. Yet what we do know for certain is that the United States and the world will be far better served by this adult leader and his pragmatic cabinet than ever we were by the collection of self-serving ideologues they have replaced.
Today should see the final important cabinet approvals that will include the woebegotten Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who received an important endorsement from Paul Volcker the excellent Fed Chairman who preceded the highly overrated Alan Greenspan. Whatever Timothy may have done (how could someone named Timothy be bad), his credentials on Wall Street are Triple A, for whatever that is worth these days. Assessing the value of such things, at least on a short term basis, was easy, even for the GOP, who have realized that this is no time to pick a fight with the the incoming missile of public popularity that has swelled for all things Obama. Markets began to reflect this wave of confidence yesterday as they combined with good news from IBM and some significant insider buying in the beleagured banks to post recovery gains, the continuation of which I would expect to see over the coming weeks as we approach the 1150 S&P 500 target this letter projected last November. Yes I know I said it would occur by mid to late January, but I also cautioned that "getting both the number and the day right" was an improbable task. We now need to close strongly above 860 for this thrust to achieve technical approval, a level that may be forthcoming today.
The world economy is not likely to show signs of recovery for some time to come as they await the return of open and liquid credit markets. It has been noted here that the LIBOR rate and the attendant TED SPREAD have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, and that these are important monitors of the velocity of money, a term that should enjoy increasing analysis in the popular press; google all of the above for your Economics 101 course... you know, the one that Bush failed. Markets, however, as this letter so often reiterates, are predictors of the future, and express the buying or selling, not of past Christmas ghosts but of future realities...so get out of your present malaise and look forward.
In Canada next week's budget should offer both fiscal stimulus and a possible retreatment of the income trust issue. Look to these latter gifts (maybe for your tax free accounts) and to my favourite Canadian infrastructure company Aecon around $10.50 up from $6 in November. Investment banking is coming off its worst year in recent history so look for a ton of new issue product and a spate of merger and acquisition activity. GMP.UN in the low 5's will be a slam dunk beneficiary of such largesse. And just one more point....Barack's Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel is set to become a household name in the coming years but it won't be in the same way that H.R. Halediman or John Erlichman's was. Oh, and I nearly forgot...own some gold shares.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
January 20, 2009 Edition
Good Morning All,
As there is little new I can add to the overwhelmingly thorough coverage of this most important inauguration week, I will instead reflect upon the points of change which I believe to be most important. Since I took my first tentative steps toward the possibility of an Obama Presidency in a letter I wrote away back in the fall of 2007, much has come about, both to Obama and to the America that dared to embrace him, and although in these closing days it appears to be all about one man, it has also become evident through time that this dream has grown to be increasingly inclusive of the caring and hopeful people who may not have supported or voted for him, or even voted at all.
This change of which everyone speaks is not just transitional. It is transformational, for whatever happens henceforth, nothing will ever be remotely the same in American or, dare I say, global politics. The change in Washington and in America is one in which pragmatism will replace the strictures of ideology, where ideas and curiosity will overpower the rote of Republican cant, and where the solutions to the complex problems of the world will be addressed with knowledge and thoughtfulness, not just the simple reactions of tax cuts, deregulation and military might that have gotten us to this present place of enormous danger.
The going, as Barack and the rest of us are wont to repeat, will be difficult and "the climb will be steep" but we have collectively taken a step back from the abyss and and have begun the ascent. Were I a person of religious faith I would indeed offer a prayer for both his safety and our future, metaphorically I suppose I already have.Let the renaissance begin.
As there is little new I can add to the overwhelmingly thorough coverage of this most important inauguration week, I will instead reflect upon the points of change which I believe to be most important. Since I took my first tentative steps toward the possibility of an Obama Presidency in a letter I wrote away back in the fall of 2007, much has come about, both to Obama and to the America that dared to embrace him, and although in these closing days it appears to be all about one man, it has also become evident through time that this dream has grown to be increasingly inclusive of the caring and hopeful people who may not have supported or voted for him, or even voted at all.
This change of which everyone speaks is not just transitional. It is transformational, for whatever happens henceforth, nothing will ever be remotely the same in American or, dare I say, global politics. The change in Washington and in America is one in which pragmatism will replace the strictures of ideology, where ideas and curiosity will overpower the rote of Republican cant, and where the solutions to the complex problems of the world will be addressed with knowledge and thoughtfulness, not just the simple reactions of tax cuts, deregulation and military might that have gotten us to this present place of enormous danger.
The going, as Barack and the rest of us are wont to repeat, will be difficult and "the climb will be steep" but we have collectively taken a step back from the abyss and and have begun the ascent. Were I a person of religious faith I would indeed offer a prayer for both his safety and our future, metaphorically I suppose I already have.Let the renaissance begin.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
January 15, 2009 Edition
Good Morning All,
Investor bids on world markets have all but disappeared over the past six days, leading this short term bull toward an internal debate over the question as to whether I am totally wrong (impossible), or temporarily mistaken about the timing of my prognostications. Ahh it would be unhindered peace and progress, t'were it not for the quandaries this life is wont to present to our world of fun and frolic.
One answer to the present dilemma may reside within the lessons taught to each of us through the exercise of life and living. If, for a moment, we can chase back in time to our early days when we were first introduced to the realities of the David and Goliath world that would become our existence, you know (as Caroline Kennedy might say), the years in which we began to understand whether we were going to be freedom fighters, nasty bullies or simple tribespeople. For my part I was an early Darwinist who quickly realized that my survival and prosperity resided not with my physical skills, but with the agility of my tongue and its ability to sway (or as some critics might suggest) manipulate potential opponents through minduse. To carry the story a little further and thereby get to the point of this seemingly strange metaphorical diversion, permit me, for a sentence or two, to dwell upon the physics lesson first learned in Sunday School.
As a child I was not one disposed to the abuse, torture or murder of small animals and feathered creatures nor do I believe that I ever owned or operated a slingshot, but I was an observant little fellow who quickly grasped the aforementioned principle behind David's weapon of mass destruction. Elasticity by its very nature must be stretched before its power can be released, and the farther the pull back the greater the forward thrust will be. Markets, similar to the underestimated slingshot are presently enjoying such a pullback and they are aimed not just at the ceiling but o'er the roof. Realistically though, we must remain aware of an even more important law of physics...gravity.
Short term problems with a couple of Barack's cabinet appointments will soon be overcome as the holdup appears to based more upon opposition posturing than it does on substance. Meanwhile things continue to look very bleak on the economic front just as do the prospects for sanity in the Middle East. There is little good news about these days excepting the comforting thought that we are about to deal with the Reagan legacy of deregulation and the inherited Bush debacle of everything, instead of simply living with the seemingly interminable mess. Despite all of this, it is not whether we get an Obama rally it is when and I suspect that we are due, if not today, then very soon after.
On another Barack watch note, it was interesting that he invited a number of conservative media types to dinner on Tuesday evening. Yesterday morning, Larry Kudlow, the extremely annoying, ideological boor who is given far too much air time on the increasingly absurd CNBC business network was absolutely ecstatic over the meeting, gushing on about Obama as if he were some sort of ......may I say it....Messiah. This from cable television's most reactionary conservative. If Barack can win these guys over with pragmatic posings or supposings....well he reminds me of that little boy who realized his personal strengths at an early age. Just get the job done son.
Investor bids on world markets have all but disappeared over the past six days, leading this short term bull toward an internal debate over the question as to whether I am totally wrong (impossible), or temporarily mistaken about the timing of my prognostications. Ahh it would be unhindered peace and progress, t'were it not for the quandaries this life is wont to present to our world of fun and frolic.
One answer to the present dilemma may reside within the lessons taught to each of us through the exercise of life and living. If, for a moment, we can chase back in time to our early days when we were first introduced to the realities of the David and Goliath world that would become our existence, you know (as Caroline Kennedy might say), the years in which we began to understand whether we were going to be freedom fighters, nasty bullies or simple tribespeople. For my part I was an early Darwinist who quickly realized that my survival and prosperity resided not with my physical skills, but with the agility of my tongue and its ability to sway (or as some critics might suggest) manipulate potential opponents through minduse. To carry the story a little further and thereby get to the point of this seemingly strange metaphorical diversion, permit me, for a sentence or two, to dwell upon the physics lesson first learned in Sunday School.
As a child I was not one disposed to the abuse, torture or murder of small animals and feathered creatures nor do I believe that I ever owned or operated a slingshot, but I was an observant little fellow who quickly grasped the aforementioned principle behind David's weapon of mass destruction. Elasticity by its very nature must be stretched before its power can be released, and the farther the pull back the greater the forward thrust will be. Markets, similar to the underestimated slingshot are presently enjoying such a pullback and they are aimed not just at the ceiling but o'er the roof. Realistically though, we must remain aware of an even more important law of physics...gravity.
Short term problems with a couple of Barack's cabinet appointments will soon be overcome as the holdup appears to based more upon opposition posturing than it does on substance. Meanwhile things continue to look very bleak on the economic front just as do the prospects for sanity in the Middle East. There is little good news about these days excepting the comforting thought that we are about to deal with the Reagan legacy of deregulation and the inherited Bush debacle of everything, instead of simply living with the seemingly interminable mess. Despite all of this, it is not whether we get an Obama rally it is when and I suspect that we are due, if not today, then very soon after.
On another Barack watch note, it was interesting that he invited a number of conservative media types to dinner on Tuesday evening. Yesterday morning, Larry Kudlow, the extremely annoying, ideological boor who is given far too much air time on the increasingly absurd CNBC business network was absolutely ecstatic over the meeting, gushing on about Obama as if he were some sort of ......may I say it....Messiah. This from cable television's most reactionary conservative. If Barack can win these guys over with pragmatic posings or supposings....well he reminds me of that little boy who realized his personal strengths at an early age. Just get the job done son.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
January 13, 2009 Edition
Good Morning All,
Markets have not had an up day since last Tuesday when the latest 20% plus rally reached overbought proportions. This serious surge, which began off the November 20th lows, appears to have contained more than just an index advance, as its final weeks included some interesting moves among the mid and small cap stocks. So now we have seen a double Autumn bottom followed by a rally, followed by a bout of profit taking...so what is next.
It is very difficult at this juncture to make a great case for a major economic recovery any time soon, so we won't. We will however note that in all previous modern world recessions or depressions neither China nor India was a major player, a situation that lends itself to a serious view that it indeed may be different this time. We would also wish to make much of several other important indicators, ones that have been discussed in previous letters and monitored by yours truly and thousands of others. First let us note that the TED SPREAD has recently fallen under 100 basis points after having reached 364 following the Lehman debacle. LIBOR has dropped under 1% as well, its lowest level in years. Without getting into the details, it is sufficient to suggest that credit markets are loosening, the first and most important step on the way to recovery. On the international front the noticeable drop in the U.S. trade deficit and the rise in its Canadian counterpart can be easily explained...think energy. Meanwhile though the Baltic Dry Index that monitors shipping has risen sharply from its October lows. Okay, so before I put many more of you to sleep let's get to the guts of the issue at hand.
For those of us with exceptionally strong stomachs who watched the final Bush press conference yesterday and likely had a number of different reactions, these were mine. Revulsion, not pity for a man who should never have been allowed to hold a serious public office. An ignorant, incurious asshole who doesn't yet understand what he never understood. A man-boy who presided over the worst administration in American history and still believes that historians will exonerate him. From deregulation to Iraq to Katrina and the devastated world economy this moron knows no shame and feels little remorse for the mess he has left behind. Not for the economic terror we are now experiencin', not for the millions of dead, maimed and displaced Iraqis whose lives were imperiled, and not even for the American regular soldiers and reservists who will spend the rest of their lives with missing body parts or fractured minds. I am filled with disgust when I think that neither he nor his cronies nor his puppet masters will ever spend a moment in Abu Ghraib....not even a week of soft time at a country club prison.
In March of 1933 Franklin Roosevelt and the people were so invested with confidence and hope that a major market rally ensued. Next week another sea change will take place in America and I would expect not less but more of a positive public reaction, because if changing a George Bush for a Barack Obama cannot inspire an American revival, I don't know what can. Let the Renaissance begin.
Markets have not had an up day since last Tuesday when the latest 20% plus rally reached overbought proportions. This serious surge, which began off the November 20th lows, appears to have contained more than just an index advance, as its final weeks included some interesting moves among the mid and small cap stocks. So now we have seen a double Autumn bottom followed by a rally, followed by a bout of profit taking...so what is next.
It is very difficult at this juncture to make a great case for a major economic recovery any time soon, so we won't. We will however note that in all previous modern world recessions or depressions neither China nor India was a major player, a situation that lends itself to a serious view that it indeed may be different this time. We would also wish to make much of several other important indicators, ones that have been discussed in previous letters and monitored by yours truly and thousands of others. First let us note that the TED SPREAD has recently fallen under 100 basis points after having reached 364 following the Lehman debacle. LIBOR has dropped under 1% as well, its lowest level in years. Without getting into the details, it is sufficient to suggest that credit markets are loosening, the first and most important step on the way to recovery. On the international front the noticeable drop in the U.S. trade deficit and the rise in its Canadian counterpart can be easily explained...think energy. Meanwhile though the Baltic Dry Index that monitors shipping has risen sharply from its October lows. Okay, so before I put many more of you to sleep let's get to the guts of the issue at hand.
For those of us with exceptionally strong stomachs who watched the final Bush press conference yesterday and likely had a number of different reactions, these were mine. Revulsion, not pity for a man who should never have been allowed to hold a serious public office. An ignorant, incurious asshole who doesn't yet understand what he never understood. A man-boy who presided over the worst administration in American history and still believes that historians will exonerate him. From deregulation to Iraq to Katrina and the devastated world economy this moron knows no shame and feels little remorse for the mess he has left behind. Not for the economic terror we are now experiencin', not for the millions of dead, maimed and displaced Iraqis whose lives were imperiled, and not even for the American regular soldiers and reservists who will spend the rest of their lives with missing body parts or fractured minds. I am filled with disgust when I think that neither he nor his cronies nor his puppet masters will ever spend a moment in Abu Ghraib....not even a week of soft time at a country club prison.
In March of 1933 Franklin Roosevelt and the people were so invested with confidence and hope that a major market rally ensued. Next week another sea change will take place in America and I would expect not less but more of a positive public reaction, because if changing a George Bush for a Barack Obama cannot inspire an American revival, I don't know what can. Let the Renaissance begin.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
January 8, 2009 Edition
Good Morning All,
Way back in November after markets had given in to the 20% pre election rally, this letter suggested that a year end rally would see indexes recover as much as 50% of their 2008 losses. So far, so good as the move, which has been largely made in the past 10 days or so, has seen a 20% pick up. We have now reached the crisis point in the market rise, the point at which the big money will decide whether they are more afraid of being out or being in. What we know for sure is that the intensely watched credit markets have shown some positive signs of late with the TED spread now receding to levels not seen since the summer. Once again it bears repeating that the stock market and the economy are two distinct entities which rarely if ever operate in tandem. The economy is a mess and is unlikely to show significant improvement for at least two quarters; the question at this juncture is to decide how deep the discounting of bad news has already been and at what level will the market trade in order to find its present fair future value. And always, always remember the lesson recently revisited that markets, stocks, bonds and commodities will always exceed the highest or lowest of expectations by a factor of X plus 10.
There has been much concern of late that the great expectation of the Obama Presidency has been overdone and some are worried that the stimulus package will be delayed or watered down to the point of ineffectiveness. What has been set up here is a classic battle between the largely Republican Freidman school of monetarism and the fiscally conscious Keynsian Democrats. To describe this confrontation as simply as possible you must return to your Economics 101 textbook, (likely written by Paul Samuelson) which defines the terms if not the politics. The Republicans are a one mantra party that ostensibly believes that everything can be solved by cutting taxes and cutting spending, while maintaining a tight control over the money supply. Well folks, one out of three is all they have ever mustered and yes it is the tax cuts to the already wealthy. As for spending and a conservative monetary policy, this has been the party that has twice debased the currency as it recorded the highest deficits in history under Reagan in the 80's and Bush ll in the recent decade. There is little doubt now that Obama will exceed his predecessors' records but the bulk of his problems are hereditary. We now need a massive fiscal stimulus of epic proportion, let us hope that he does not waver in the face of right wing nonsense.
If the market reverses off its early retreat we can watch out for this hope rally becoming a panic rally. They can happen too you know.
Way back in November after markets had given in to the 20% pre election rally, this letter suggested that a year end rally would see indexes recover as much as 50% of their 2008 losses. So far, so good as the move, which has been largely made in the past 10 days or so, has seen a 20% pick up. We have now reached the crisis point in the market rise, the point at which the big money will decide whether they are more afraid of being out or being in. What we know for sure is that the intensely watched credit markets have shown some positive signs of late with the TED spread now receding to levels not seen since the summer. Once again it bears repeating that the stock market and the economy are two distinct entities which rarely if ever operate in tandem. The economy is a mess and is unlikely to show significant improvement for at least two quarters; the question at this juncture is to decide how deep the discounting of bad news has already been and at what level will the market trade in order to find its present fair future value. And always, always remember the lesson recently revisited that markets, stocks, bonds and commodities will always exceed the highest or lowest of expectations by a factor of X plus 10.
There has been much concern of late that the great expectation of the Obama Presidency has been overdone and some are worried that the stimulus package will be delayed or watered down to the point of ineffectiveness. What has been set up here is a classic battle between the largely Republican Freidman school of monetarism and the fiscally conscious Keynsian Democrats. To describe this confrontation as simply as possible you must return to your Economics 101 textbook, (likely written by Paul Samuelson) which defines the terms if not the politics. The Republicans are a one mantra party that ostensibly believes that everything can be solved by cutting taxes and cutting spending, while maintaining a tight control over the money supply. Well folks, one out of three is all they have ever mustered and yes it is the tax cuts to the already wealthy. As for spending and a conservative monetary policy, this has been the party that has twice debased the currency as it recorded the highest deficits in history under Reagan in the 80's and Bush ll in the recent decade. There is little doubt now that Obama will exceed his predecessors' records but the bulk of his problems are hereditary. We now need a massive fiscal stimulus of epic proportion, let us hope that he does not waver in the face of right wing nonsense.
If the market reverses off its early retreat we can watch out for this hope rally becoming a panic rally. They can happen too you know.
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