January

The Laurel Comment

“History is invaluable for many reasons, none of which have helped the present administration or its creators.”
– William Milton


Commentary

The recent holiday season witnessed the deaths of two vastly different world figures. Gerald Ford as you all know by now was the thirty eighth and first unelected President of the United States. Saddam Hussein was the long term Sunni dictator of the enigmatic region which has been known as Iraq for much of the last century. On the surface of things there appear to be few parallels or connective dots between the careers of these two men yet underneath the glamour of revisionist history we may arguably discover some, if not many, cause and effect circumstances that have bound both world history and our current dilemmas to the actions of these men.

The eulogies given over to President Ford during these past weeks uniformly described him as a conciliator and healer of the nation’s wounds. They spoke not of his leadership skills but of his agreeability. The networks, in their choice of pundits and experts also seem to have decided, with few exceptions that Ford’s defining moment was the Nixon pardon, a gesture for which most have lauded the President and similarly agreed to its being a correct measure in the eyes of history. First among those from whom this patent nonsense was elicited were the two Bushs, Cheney and Rumsfeld, men who gained access to power either directly through Ford or through genetic transfer, as in the case of the White House’s present occupant.

If is a big word when it comes to rewriting history but let us for a moment consider that it was Gerald Ford who elevated Bush Sr., Cheney and Rumsfeld to star status in his White House giving them not just temporary but permanent access to the power levers of the GOP. Without this promotion George senior would never have been considered for the Vice Presidency under Reagan or the candidacy for President thereafter, and need we speculate on the possibility that George W, without his father’s powerful influence would have ever become quasi owner of the Texas Rangers baseball team let alone Governor or President. We think not.

So what exactly is Gerald Ford’s unintended legacy? A Nixon pardon that was immediately rejected by most Americans but lovingly accepted by those about to attain power whose fear of punishment for any crimes yet to come was now less intimidating. Has the legacy not also included the Presidency of Bush Sr. and by unhappy circumstance the subsequent terms of Bush Jr. and the roles of Vice President Cheney and former Defense Secretary Rumsfeld?

This tragically, is the real history of a good man, a conciliatory Republican who might well have been happier on the other side of the aisle.

It has been some time since America discovered that the capture of Saddam Hussein would have little to do with either winning the war in Iraq or even toning down the violence in that troubled region. I suspect that it will take them even less time to figure out the true impact of his execution.

The invasion and occupation of Iraq cannot be blamed on Gerald Ford, a man as we now know, who opposed the war but shamefully chose not to express his views during his lifetime. This might in future be referred to as the Colin Powell syndrome, whereby you are supposed to remain adamantly loyal to people that you know are wrong and to policies that you fundamentally oppose.

The Nixon pardon has already proven to be an enormous mistake for both America and the world because it separated the politicians from the rule of law and left the true actions of the Nixon administration buried in the unseen files of history...subject to revision from time to time or state funeral to state funeral.

As for Saddam he would still likely be alive and in power, not a good thing but compared to what? Iraq as it is now? There was a better way...still is.

Markets

The 2006 market year was one of many surprises many of which were outlined in last month’s column. Canadians are now all too well aware of the Halloween surprise wherein the Harper Conservatives went against all commonly held belief and altered the rules on income trusts and since Finance Minister Flaherty has time and again reiterated his unwillingness to recharter the game I advise everyone to get over it.

Value still exists within this group and it is my view that many trusts will be among the best performers of 2007. So do your homework and make some profitable decisions soon.

On the other hand the general world market situation may be a little less productive in the coming year. At this time it appears that a distinct slowdown if not an outright recession will overtake the U.S. economy during the next six months. Right now America is being held together by China demand and an overactive Federal Reserve whose money printing skills have reached Guiness Book record levels.

There will be a time to pay the piper as the race to buy hard assets ahead of the coming currency crisis runs its course.

Own gold, silver and special situations in the energy area as hedges against the tide.

Remarkably

Federalists, realists and the relatively sane may all breathe a deep sigh of relief both here in Quebec and elsewhere with the election of Stephane Dion to the Liberal Party leadership. Compare for a moment the attributes, shortcomings and personal presence of these three men Boisclair, Duceppe and Dion. Not much else to say...is there?