Good Morning All,
Commentary:
Although the adage "all politics is local" has been attributed by the late Democrat Tip O'Neill to his equally late father, it has since been incorporated into the reportage of all party campaigns; be they state, federal or municipal in nature. Until recently, however, it had never occurred to an American national leader that this theorem also applied to countries, as it has taken over a century of failed U.S. interventions to finally produce a counter policy that might work in Iran.
The criticism of Obama's reticence to become actively involved in the current situation in Iran has come from the usual political and otherwise uninformed sources, a monologue that is at once galling and laughable, considering the incredible mess these same individuals have most recently made of U.S. foreign relations. Worse still are the reporters whose consistent failure to ask the most obvious of questions; such as "what would you propose we do that would make a POSITIVE difference?"
The answer to the Iranian question will be best answered by the Iranian people, who just happen to have some recent experience in regard to revolutions having kicked out the last American puppet 30 years ago. Maybe this time they will get the "change part" right and finally throw off the yoke of fundamentalism. Meanwhile it is quite something to watch the Christian fundamentalists in America and their fellow travellers on the wacky right, scream for a defeat of the conservative leadership in Tehran. Once again, "politics is local", let's keep it that way. Twitter your support if you like but remember that democracy imposed from without... is just another form of tyranny.
Markets
We appear to have reached an impasse during June with several weeks of trendless trading, or non trading were the truth to be known. I am disappointed with the current failure to move toward my early July goal of a 1050 plus S&P 500 as this present market condition may now prevent a summer of leisure. The ancient market truism has once again reared its ego busting head "you may be able to predict the time or the level, but never both together". We will watch carefully over the next few hours or days to see whether the S&P will visit 840 or stage my desired rebound past 945. The themes of techs, biotechs, potash etc remain intact. Commodity stocks have given up 20 to 30% of their recent gains and should once again be under accumulation.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
June 3rd Edition
Good Morning All,
The market closed last week with an important advance above the S&P 500 resistance level of 915 and continued this bullish mode Monday with a confirmation outburst over 940. The consolidation we witnessed yesterday is likely to continue through Thursday as the technicals prepare for a much sharper breakout toward our early summer target near 1100. This latest push may also be holding back until Air Force One has successfully cleared Middle East air space on its way to the 65th D-Day ceremonies on June 6th.
The Market has proven once again that it is discounting mechanism as final news of the GM bankruptcy came in the face of a 200-plus point Dow Jones advance. Naysayers continue to abound, and this too confirms our belief in our oft-stated adage that bulls are long stock and are therefore potential sellers, while bears are loaded with cash and will one day be buyers. The power of this phenomenon is compounded by those "short the market" that will once again be squeezed by week's end.
The two small-cap oil sands selections we posted Monday are respectively and respectably up 12 and 39%. This is just too easy to go on without pause... forever, so watch the technicals and get ready to take profits in early July when our near-term target is hit.
In the meantime we are working on an idea for a GOP fundraiser to be held in Yankee stadium; it would include Cheney, Rove, Limbaugh, Rummy, Ann Coulter, and others. It could involve waterboarding and other such Abu Ghraib practices, during which a running tote board would provide scrolling odds based on who would break first. We are open to suggestions on who would best act as the Master of Ceremonies. So far Al Gore and Hillary are among the choices...in leather.
The market closed last week with an important advance above the S&P 500 resistance level of 915 and continued this bullish mode Monday with a confirmation outburst over 940. The consolidation we witnessed yesterday is likely to continue through Thursday as the technicals prepare for a much sharper breakout toward our early summer target near 1100. This latest push may also be holding back until Air Force One has successfully cleared Middle East air space on its way to the 65th D-Day ceremonies on June 6th.
The Market has proven once again that it is discounting mechanism as final news of the GM bankruptcy came in the face of a 200-plus point Dow Jones advance. Naysayers continue to abound, and this too confirms our belief in our oft-stated adage that bulls are long stock and are therefore potential sellers, while bears are loaded with cash and will one day be buyers. The power of this phenomenon is compounded by those "short the market" that will once again be squeezed by week's end.
The two small-cap oil sands selections we posted Monday are respectively and respectably up 12 and 39%. This is just too easy to go on without pause... forever, so watch the technicals and get ready to take profits in early July when our near-term target is hit.
In the meantime we are working on an idea for a GOP fundraiser to be held in Yankee stadium; it would include Cheney, Rove, Limbaugh, Rummy, Ann Coulter, and others. It could involve waterboarding and other such Abu Ghraib practices, during which a running tote board would provide scrolling odds based on who would break first. We are open to suggestions on who would best act as the Master of Ceremonies. So far Al Gore and Hillary are among the choices...in leather.
Monday, June 1, 2009
June 1st Edition
Good Morning All,
For the superstitious among you, today marks the beginning of week 13 of the recovery rally. This "generational" opportunity has already brought abundant gains to those who had the courage and wisdom to realign their portfolios in what were very scary times, and although this has been a plus 30% index runup, (far more for many individual stocks), the best may be yet to come.
It appears that everything, excepting GM and the U.S dollar, have enjoyed the most recent ride, with the commodity trade leading last week's surge on the back of the aforementioned dollar weakness. Oil prices appear to have comfortably settled above the 50$ support level and now seem prepared for a run at 75$. This upsurge has brought the oil sands back into play, lending new credibility to some of our old picks in the group. BQI on the AMEX and BCF on the TSX both trade around a buck and have recently raised cash, Petrobank at 36$ remains the class of the bunch. Gold is for everyone, look at MMC.UN 6.70 as a conservative entry.....many more.
Friday's close above 915 on the S&P 500 should signal our much vaunted "blow off" rally toward 1100. We will monitor the progress, even as we trepidatiously view Obama's venture to Cairo later this week.
Dick Cheney has recently been making far too many headlines in his quest to criticize the Obama administration while making a positive case for his own doings, and although I believe he has every right to speak out in his defence, I would prefer that he be forced to do so in a court of law, after being charged with a laundry list of constitutional offences...including sedition.
...and on the subject of right wing, libertarian nonsense, it is a joy to watch the squirming of CNBC commentators and their chosen guests as they continue to critique every move the Obama team makes, cringing with despair on market up days...of which there have been many late.
For the superstitious among you, today marks the beginning of week 13 of the recovery rally. This "generational" opportunity has already brought abundant gains to those who had the courage and wisdom to realign their portfolios in what were very scary times, and although this has been a plus 30% index runup, (far more for many individual stocks), the best may be yet to come.
It appears that everything, excepting GM and the U.S dollar, have enjoyed the most recent ride, with the commodity trade leading last week's surge on the back of the aforementioned dollar weakness. Oil prices appear to have comfortably settled above the 50$ support level and now seem prepared for a run at 75$. This upsurge has brought the oil sands back into play, lending new credibility to some of our old picks in the group. BQI on the AMEX and BCF on the TSX both trade around a buck and have recently raised cash, Petrobank at 36$ remains the class of the bunch. Gold is for everyone, look at MMC.UN 6.70 as a conservative entry.....many more.
Friday's close above 915 on the S&P 500 should signal our much vaunted "blow off" rally toward 1100. We will monitor the progress, even as we trepidatiously view Obama's venture to Cairo later this week.
Dick Cheney has recently been making far too many headlines in his quest to criticize the Obama administration while making a positive case for his own doings, and although I believe he has every right to speak out in his defence, I would prefer that he be forced to do so in a court of law, after being charged with a laundry list of constitutional offences...including sedition.
...and on the subject of right wing, libertarian nonsense, it is a joy to watch the squirming of CNBC commentators and their chosen guests as they continue to critique every move the Obama team makes, cringing with despair on market up days...of which there have been many late.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
May 20 Edition
Good Morning All,
ReGenesis:
...and so it was written that the value of the investment spectrum would rise for eight weeks and upon the ninth week of its generational adventure...it would rest.
It now appears that this market run reached a short term peak on May 7, the date of the "bank stress test" announcement. It would also seem likely that the sideways movement that predominated week 10 has acted as a refuelling stop for the next upward surge, so even though all the evidence is not yet in, a close above 920 on the S&P 500 would go along way toward reassuring this observor that the "go away in May" theory will be abrogated in 2009.
This eleventh week began with a furious upsurge that has since spent a day of recollection (the TSX was closed Monday, so yesterday was catch-up). In Asia, markets have also shown resilience, with India rising nearly 20% in two days. The ICCI bank (symbol IBN) has now tripled since mid March. In America the tech stocks, which had led the post-November recovery, took a much-needed break in week eight before showing some life late last week. So as previously mentioned...let's look for the confirmation as we are once again on the cusp of change. ..."
and chapters could turn into books"...
Jimmy again.
ReGenesis:
...and so it was written that the value of the investment spectrum would rise for eight weeks and upon the ninth week of its generational adventure...it would rest.
It now appears that this market run reached a short term peak on May 7, the date of the "bank stress test" announcement. It would also seem likely that the sideways movement that predominated week 10 has acted as a refuelling stop for the next upward surge, so even though all the evidence is not yet in, a close above 920 on the S&P 500 would go along way toward reassuring this observor that the "go away in May" theory will be abrogated in 2009.
This eleventh week began with a furious upsurge that has since spent a day of recollection (the TSX was closed Monday, so yesterday was catch-up). In Asia, markets have also shown resilience, with India rising nearly 20% in two days. The ICCI bank (symbol IBN) has now tripled since mid March. In America the tech stocks, which had led the post-November recovery, took a much-needed break in week eight before showing some life late last week. So as previously mentioned...let's look for the confirmation as we are once again on the cusp of change. ..."
and chapters could turn into books"...
Jimmy again.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
May 13th
Good Morning All,
Nine and a half weeks have passed since the March rally began, and after a really good run to the upside many stocks and the broad indexes are looking a little peaked. The tech sector (my particular favourite) has been undergoing some serious profit taking since the end of week eight, while agriculture and biotech stocks have continued to soar. Joining them, since the announcement of the bank stress tests of last week, have been a number of smaller bank operations and regional entities: CNB, COOP, FITB, SUPR and RF to name a few.
Many investors have remained on the sidelines throughout the rally as their disbelief in markets has been coloured by their reading of current economic headlines. I will not argue the point with the doomsters, beyond mentioning that stock and commodity markets traded to all time highs during 2007 in the face of dire long-term predictions by a few who knew that housing prices had peaked in 2005, and that bank asset statements were fundamentally flawed. It would appear to this observer that a 14,000 DOW or TSX was far riskier than the 6,500 levels we so recently visited. Now we are listening to the many....who don't know dick.
I have written of a five- to eight-week rally that would go away in May for a little while before it resumed its upward course to a 1050-1150 S&P mid-summer high. We have now passed the eight week window and a sideways correction has taken hold; the question before us "is how long will this last and how deep will the move be?" This conundrum cannot be answered with great conviction based on fundamentals at this stage, so we will have to fall back on technicals. For this I will rely on moving averages and David Nichols' "Fractal Report" wherein he states that a breaking close below 893 on the S&P500 would create a short term sell signal. I think this could take us to the 790 level, thereby recreating yet another generational opportunity. If, on the other hand, markets hold and then trade above 930 on this index, the race upward will resume and the momentum trade will be bullish.
Commentary to come at another time.
"If I could just get it on paper, I'd tell you what I think I did." Jimmy Buffett
Nine and a half weeks have passed since the March rally began, and after a really good run to the upside many stocks and the broad indexes are looking a little peaked. The tech sector (my particular favourite) has been undergoing some serious profit taking since the end of week eight, while agriculture and biotech stocks have continued to soar. Joining them, since the announcement of the bank stress tests of last week, have been a number of smaller bank operations and regional entities: CNB, COOP, FITB, SUPR and RF to name a few.
Many investors have remained on the sidelines throughout the rally as their disbelief in markets has been coloured by their reading of current economic headlines. I will not argue the point with the doomsters, beyond mentioning that stock and commodity markets traded to all time highs during 2007 in the face of dire long-term predictions by a few who knew that housing prices had peaked in 2005, and that bank asset statements were fundamentally flawed. It would appear to this observer that a 14,000 DOW or TSX was far riskier than the 6,500 levels we so recently visited. Now we are listening to the many....who don't know dick.
I have written of a five- to eight-week rally that would go away in May for a little while before it resumed its upward course to a 1050-1150 S&P mid-summer high. We have now passed the eight week window and a sideways correction has taken hold; the question before us "is how long will this last and how deep will the move be?" This conundrum cannot be answered with great conviction based on fundamentals at this stage, so we will have to fall back on technicals. For this I will rely on moving averages and David Nichols' "Fractal Report" wherein he states that a breaking close below 893 on the S&P500 would create a short term sell signal. I think this could take us to the 790 level, thereby recreating yet another generational opportunity. If, on the other hand, markets hold and then trade above 930 on this index, the race upward will resume and the momentum trade will be bullish.
Commentary to come at another time.
"If I could just get it on paper, I'd tell you what I think I did." Jimmy Buffett
Thursday, May 7, 2009
May 7 2009
Good Morning All,
Markets have continued to soar well past the breakout number of S&P 870 and brought us closer to yet another resistance level in the 940's. The release of the delayed "stress test" results will take place at the close of business today and this much discussed news may well be used as an excuse for profit taking. Contrarily it may also be used as a starting point for my much vaunted "blow off" rally. The question will be answered shortly, so we will watch today's action with great interest.
As readers are aware, the enclosed list was first published last November/December but it is not a complete view of my suggestions. There have been and continue to be countless other plays, the most important of which are sector ETF's. In the U.S. the FAS and FAZ best represent the bull and bear financials, while the TNA and TZA accomplish the same thing for the small caps.
Commentary
Just a brief mention on the Rove/Cheney view that torture was not just an acceptable practice but an effective one. In the post WW ll period, the Nuremberg trials did not try privates and non-commissioned officers; they went after those who developed and orchestrated the policies of the" holocaust". We are not suggesting that the deeds are similar, even though 4 million displaced Iraqis might disagree; we simply wish to point out that the only people doing time for the crimes in Abu Ghraib and other locations have been the foot soldiers. Those who rewrote the U.S. Constitution have gotten off scot free.
One of the worst decisions ever made by an American President was Gerry Ford's pardon of Richard Nixon; this pardon did not heal America; the wound it left has since festered into the manifestations most recently seen in the Bush administration...we can do anything we like because we will be pardoned....This is precisely why Obama needs to convene a bipartisan investigative committee....this present "reverse Nuremberg" must not be allowed to continue.
And while I am on my anti-libertarian rant...what is wrong with the fact that the wealthiest 2% of Americans pay 80% of the income tax collected; after all they own 80% of the wealth. See the list below and you may join them.
Markets have continued to soar well past the breakout number of S&P 870 and brought us closer to yet another resistance level in the 940's. The release of the delayed "stress test" results will take place at the close of business today and this much discussed news may well be used as an excuse for profit taking. Contrarily it may also be used as a starting point for my much vaunted "blow off" rally. The question will be answered shortly, so we will watch today's action with great interest.
As readers are aware, the enclosed list was first published last November/December but it is not a complete view of my suggestions. There have been and continue to be countless other plays, the most important of which are sector ETF's. In the U.S. the FAS and FAZ best represent the bull and bear financials, while the TNA and TZA accomplish the same thing for the small caps.
Commentary
Just a brief mention on the Rove/Cheney view that torture was not just an acceptable practice but an effective one. In the post WW ll period, the Nuremberg trials did not try privates and non-commissioned officers; they went after those who developed and orchestrated the policies of the" holocaust". We are not suggesting that the deeds are similar, even though 4 million displaced Iraqis might disagree; we simply wish to point out that the only people doing time for the crimes in Abu Ghraib and other locations have been the foot soldiers. Those who rewrote the U.S. Constitution have gotten off scot free.
One of the worst decisions ever made by an American President was Gerry Ford's pardon of Richard Nixon; this pardon did not heal America; the wound it left has since festered into the manifestations most recently seen in the Bush administration...we can do anything we like because we will be pardoned....This is precisely why Obama needs to convene a bipartisan investigative committee....this present "reverse Nuremberg" must not be allowed to continue.
And while I am on my anti-libertarian rant...what is wrong with the fact that the wealthiest 2% of Americans pay 80% of the income tax collected; after all they own 80% of the wealth. See the list below and you may join them.
Monday, May 4, 2009
May 4 edition
Good Morning All,
Commentary
Just pretend for a moment that you had been taking a vacation on the proverbial planet of choice these past ten years, and upon returning you opened the Wall Street Journal and tuned in your new flat screen TV to CNBC or the Fox News Network. Wow, you would have to think....what kind of moron is this Obama guy. In just a little over 100 days he has not only destroyed the world economy, he has set about persecuting hard working, innocent, underpaid BANKERS and fully competent auto executives. Worse still, he is running up huge deficits and blaming the previous administration for his "inherited" problems. And soon he might even convene an investigative committee on the conduct of something called "the war on terror".
I am aware that most of the people who bother to read this letter are not members of the extreme right, although some of you poor souls may remain Republican apologists; nor would I suspect that many of you subscribe to the absurdities of libertarianism, an ideology that ranks behind anarchism in my less than humble view. With this in mind, let us appreciate the dilemma that faces those who must wield power within America and upon the international stage. Let us also understand that it will not be failed ideology (oxymoron) that will provide new and vital solutions to this unique situation...but a pragmatic application of high intellect and good judgement.
Markets
There is no such thing as a single market bottom. Techs and Agri stocks had theirs way back in November, whereas mines, oils, banks, materials and other sectors appear to have found depth at various times during the first quarter of this year. Indexes, on the other hand, seem to have put it all together on March 9th, the point from which our now eight week old rally began.
So as we enter week nine and the month of May, it might be wise to retrieve caution from the wind. There remains a strong likelihood that Friday's close above 875 on the S&P 500 could lead to a fast acceleration toward 950 before Thursday's "bank stress announcement", but a STRAIGHT run to my summer target between 1050 and 1150 seems less probable. Discipline suggests a few weeks of "go away in May" declines should take hold late this week or early next. Low volumes are fast becoming an issue and require monitoring.
"Life and ink, they run out at the same time, or so said my old friend the squid" Jimmy Buffett
Commentary
Just pretend for a moment that you had been taking a vacation on the proverbial planet of choice these past ten years, and upon returning you opened the Wall Street Journal and tuned in your new flat screen TV to CNBC or the Fox News Network. Wow, you would have to think....what kind of moron is this Obama guy. In just a little over 100 days he has not only destroyed the world economy, he has set about persecuting hard working, innocent, underpaid BANKERS and fully competent auto executives. Worse still, he is running up huge deficits and blaming the previous administration for his "inherited" problems. And soon he might even convene an investigative committee on the conduct of something called "the war on terror".
I am aware that most of the people who bother to read this letter are not members of the extreme right, although some of you poor souls may remain Republican apologists; nor would I suspect that many of you subscribe to the absurdities of libertarianism, an ideology that ranks behind anarchism in my less than humble view. With this in mind, let us appreciate the dilemma that faces those who must wield power within America and upon the international stage. Let us also understand that it will not be failed ideology (oxymoron) that will provide new and vital solutions to this unique situation...but a pragmatic application of high intellect and good judgement.
Markets
There is no such thing as a single market bottom. Techs and Agri stocks had theirs way back in November, whereas mines, oils, banks, materials and other sectors appear to have found depth at various times during the first quarter of this year. Indexes, on the other hand, seem to have put it all together on March 9th, the point from which our now eight week old rally began.
So as we enter week nine and the month of May, it might be wise to retrieve caution from the wind. There remains a strong likelihood that Friday's close above 875 on the S&P 500 could lead to a fast acceleration toward 950 before Thursday's "bank stress announcement", but a STRAIGHT run to my summer target between 1050 and 1150 seems less probable. Discipline suggests a few weeks of "go away in May" declines should take hold late this week or early next. Low volumes are fast becoming an issue and require monitoring.
"Life and ink, they run out at the same time, or so said my old friend the squid" Jimmy Buffett
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